Training data & model performance
Composition, training dynamics and held-out test metrics for the SUD biobank model. All values are mock-deterministic and reflect a knowledge-weighted prior, not a fitted production model.
Dataset overview
Total samples
7465
44 features
Train / Val / Test
5174 · 1139 · 1152
Random split (70/15/15)
Relapse positive
44%
3300 of 7465
MOUD success
62%
4626 of 7465
Cohort site
- 4995Gardenzia IOP2019 – 2024
- 786Myrtle J Scott Recovery Center2020 – 2024
- 1212Penn North IOP2018 – 2024
- 321Eastside Bridge IOP2021 – 2024
- 151Riverford Day Treatment2022 – 2024
Age distribution
Primary opioid
Mixed (1411)Rx opioid (1470)Heroin (1505)Fentanyl (3079)
Missing data per feature
% of patients in the cohort with no recorded value for this input.
OPRM1
12%
CYP2B6
18%
CYP2D6
22%
COMT
28%
MOUD adherence
9%
Social support
15%
Employment
6%
Incarcerated 12mo
4%
Training metrics
AUROC
0.842
Test set
AUPRC
0.781
Test set
F1
0.736
Threshold 0.5
Brier
0.142
Lower is better
Calibration slope
0.96
Ideal = 1.0
- AUROC:
- Area under ROC curve — overall ability to rank relapse cases above non-cases (1.0 perfect, 0.5 chance).
- AUPRC:
- Area under precision–recall curve — performance on the positive (relapse) class; better than AUROC when classes are imbalanced.
- F1:
- Harmonic mean of precision and recall at the 0.5 decision threshold (1.0 best, 0 worst).
- Brier:
- Mean squared error between predicted probability and actual outcome — lower is better (0 perfect).
- Calibration slope:
- Slope of observed vs. predicted risk; 1.0 = well-calibrated, <1 over-confident, >1 under-confident.
Loss curves
AUROC over epochs
Confusion matrix
Threshold 0.5 · Test set (n=1152)
Pred · No
Pred · Yes
Actual No
432
37.5%
189
16.4%
Actual Yes
251
21.8%
280
24.3%
Calibration plot
Predicted vs observed by decile.
Sample records
Splits:TrainValTest
Input tiers:ClinicalPGxMOUDContext
7465 matching · page 1/374 · 7465 total samples
| Meta | Clinical | PGx | MOUD | Context | Labs & phase | Outputs | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ID | Split | Age | Sex | Opioid | OUD sev. | Prior relapses | COWS in | Psych | OPRM1 | COMT | CYP2B6 * | CYP2D6 * | CYP3A4 * | CYP3A5 * | CYP2C19 * | Prior MOUD | MOUD adh. | Naloxone | Housing | Social in | Employment | Incarc. 12mo | Social score | Trauma | Phase | IA opiates | IA oxy | IA mtdn | IA bupe | IA fent | LC morphine | LC 6-MAM | LC oxycodone | LC fentanyl | LC norfent | LC methadone | LC EDDP | LC bupe | Rec. MOUD | Pred relapse | Outcome |
| T10000 | train | 48 | f | Mixed | 6 | 2 | 8 | Depression | AA | Met/Met | *6/*6 | *1/*35 | *1/*1 | *3/*3 | *1/*17 | Methadone | 95% | No | Yes | 9 | Unemployed | No | 15 | 11 | aftercare | 789 | — | 2328 | — | 13 | 3053 | — | — | 12 | 49 | 372 | 222 | — | Buprenorphine + behavioral | 45% | Relapse |
| T10001 | val | 60 | f | Rx | 7 | 3 | 6 | Multi | AA | Val/Val | *1/*18 | *1/*2 | *1/*1 | *3/*3 | *1/*1 | Multi | 65% | Yes | No | 8 | Student | No | 14 | 14 | stabilization | 2196 | — | — | 474 | — | 5681 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 167 | Buprenorphine + behavioral | 44% | No event |
| T10002 | test | 27 | m | Heroin | 0 | 2 | 29 | Depression | GG | Val/Met | *6/*6 | *2/*2 | *22/*22 | *3/*3 | *1/*1 | Bupe | 70% | No | Yes | 9 | Student | No | 16 | 8 | stabilization | 3120 | — | — | 521 | — | 5755 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | 192 | Buprenorphine + behavioral | 40% | No event |
| T10003 | train | 47 | f | Rx | 1 | 0 | 4 | Multi | AA | Val/Val | *1/*1 | *4/*4 | *1/*1 | *3/*3 | *1/*1 | None | 75% | No | Yes | 4 | Employed | No | 7 | 14 | maintenance | — | 610 | — | — | — | — | — | 253 | — | — | — | — | — | Naltrexone XR | 36% | Relapse |
| T10004 | train | 20 | i | Rx | 1 | 2 | 21 | Depression | AA | Val/Val | *1/*1 | *5/*5 | *1/*1 | *1/*1 | *1/*17 | Naltrex. | 95% | No | Yes | 2 | Employed | No | 3 | 11 | induction | 638 | — | — | — | — | 2567 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | Buprenorphine + behavioral | 29% | No event |
| T10005 | train | 60 | f | Heroin | 7 | 2 | 1 | Bipolar | AG | Val/Met | *1/*1 | *1/*5 | *1/*22 | *3/*3 | *1/*1 | Naltrex. | 75% | Yes | Yes | 5 | Unemployed | Yes | 8 | 8 | maintenance | 739 | — | — | — | — | 578 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — | Naltrexone XR | 43% | No event |
| T10006 | test | 19 | m | Heroin | 4 | 0 | 19 | Multi | AA | Val/Met | *1/*18 | *4/*5 | *1/*1 | *3/*3 | *1/*1 | Methadone | 75% | Yes | No | 4 | Unemployed | Yes | 7 | 11 | induction | 3970 | — | — | — | — | 1517 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — | Buprenorphine + behavioral | 35% | No event |
| T10007 | train | 56 | m | Fentanyl | 6 | 0 | 28 | PTSD | AG | Val/Met | *1/*6 | *1/*2 | *1/*1 | *3/*3 | *1/*1 | Bupe | 60% | No | Yes | 2 | Unemployed | No | 3 | 16 | induction | — | — | — | 315 | 42 | — | — | — | 48 | 142 | — | — | 6 | Buprenorphine + behavioral | 53% | Relapse |
| T10008 | test | 55 | f | Fentanyl | 6 | 3 | 6 | None | AA | Val/Val | *6/*18 | *1/*4 | *1/*1 | *3/*3 | *1/*1 | Bupe | 0% | Yes | Yes | 6 | Disability | No | 12 | 5 | stabilization | — | — | — | 154 | 39 | — | — | — | 83 | 128 | — | — | 130 | Buprenorphine + behavioral | 37% | No event |
| T10009 | train | 69 | m | Fentanyl | 11 | 1 | 21 | Multi | AA | Val/Val | *1/*4 | *1/*4 | *1/*1 | *3/*3 | *1/*1 | Bupe | 5% | Yes | Yes | 4 | Student | No | 9 | 13 | induction | — | — | — | 151 | 42 | — | — | — | 60 | 258 | — | — | 349 | Buprenorphine | 63% | Relapse |
| T10010 | train | 49 | m | Rx | 9 | 2 | 14 | Multi | AA | Val/Val | *1/*1 | *1/*2 | *1/*22 | *3/*3 | *1/*2 | Multi | 0% | No | Yes | 8 | Student | No | 13 | 15 | stabilization | — | 1726 | 1050 | 542 | — | — | — | 181 | — | — | 2698 | 988 | 188 | Buprenorphine + behavioral | 70% | No event |
| T10011 | train | 70 | f | Fentanyl | 5 | 0 | 17 | Multi | AA | Val/Val | *1/*6 | *1/*35 | *1/*1 | *3/*3 | *1/*1 | Naltrex. | 90% | Yes | No | 3 | Unemployed | No | 5 | 10 | stabilization | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | Buprenorphine | 29% | Relapse |
| T10012 | test | 56 | i | Rx | 7 | 1 | 12 | Depression | AA | Val/Met | *6/*18 | *1/*1 | *1/*1 | *3/*3 | *1/*1 | Bupe | 30% | No | Yes | 7 | Unemployed | Yes | 12 | 8 | stabilization | — | 2176 | — | 566 | — | — | — | 2858 | — | — | — | — | 372 | Buprenorphine + behavioral | 58% | Relapse |
| T10013 | train | 39 | f | Rx | 1 | 1 | 20 | None | GG | Met/Met | *1/*1 | *4/*4 | *1/*1 | *3/*3 | *1/*1 | None | 65% | Yes | No | 6 | Student | Yes | 9 | 8 | induction | — | 773 | — | — | — | — | — | 641 | — | — | — | — | — | Buprenorphine | 27% | No event |
| T10014 | train | 52 | m | Rx | 2 | 2 | 18 | Depression | AA | Met/Met | *1/*18 | *4/*5 | *1/*22 | *3/*3 | *1/*1 | Naltrex. | 35% | Yes | Yes | 4 | Unemployed | No | 7 | 6 | stabilization | — | 1695 | — | — | — | 18 | — | 1897 | — | — | — | — | — | Buprenorphine + behavioral | 40% | Relapse |
| T10015 | train | 31 | i | Mixed | 4 | 3 | 20 | Depression | AG | Val/Met | *1/*4 | *1/*10 | *1/*22 | *3/*3 | *1/*17 | Bupe | 45% | Yes | Yes | 8 | Employed | No | 16 | 6 | stabilization | — | — | — | 141 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 302 | Buprenorphine + behavioral | 32% | No event |
| T10016 | train | 29 | m | Fentanyl | 6 | 2 | 13 | PTSD | AA | Val/Met | *4/*4 | *1/*4 | *1/*22 | *3/*3 | *1/*1 | Bupe | 35% | Yes | No | 4 | Disability | No | 8 | 16 | induction | — | — | — | 572 | 45 | — | — | — | 32 | 82 | — | — | 31 | Buprenorphine + behavioral | 39% | No event |
| T10017 | train | 70 | m | Fentanyl | 2 | 0 | 28 | None | AG | Val/Met | *4/*4 | *1/*10 | *1/*22 | *3/*3 | *1/*17 | Bupe | 70% | Yes | No | 10 | Employed | No | 20 | 2 | induction | — | — | — | 188 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 225 | Buprenorphine + behavioral | 31% | Relapse |
| T10018 | train | 52 | f | Heroin | 8 | 1 | 0 | Anxiety | AG | Val/Val | *1/*4 | *1/*2 | *1/*22 | *3/*3 | *1/*1 | None | 90% | No | No | 3 | Student | No | 4 | 10 | taper | — | — | — | — | — | 37 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — | Naltrexone XR | 53% | No event |
| T10019 | train | 49 | m | Fentanyl | 8 | 2 | 28 | Depression | AG | Val/Val | *1/*18 | *1/*2 | *1/*22 | *1/*3 | *1/*17 | Multi | 95% | Yes | No | 10 | Unemployed | No | 19 | 11 | induction | — | — | 1043 | 498 | 20 | — | — | — | 85 | 331 | 1706 | 473 | 260 | Methadone | 56% | Relapse |